Well sigh Today s Newspoll stayed the same on 2 Part Preferred terms How boring Yet another poll predicting an ALP slaughtering of the Lib Nats Dullsville That a 57 43 results is not headline news anymore
San Jose Mercury News 72 against
NEWSPOLL Nelson Coalition at all time low | Results
newspollnetsatsj29 png
Bryan 7 30 am The latest Newspoll is in today s Australian with commentary from Dennis Shanahan The headline prediction was 55 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition Labor s primary vote prediction
distribution and simulate it a million times we end up with a nice little curve that tells us the historical probability of a government getting between any two values of Newspoll Here it shows that the chances of the government getting 55 or higher in TPP terms is about 9 Or another way 81 91 of all polls for the government are historically below 55
at the start of the campaign either as a poll bounce or a Queensland deserts Rudd theme appearing to offer the government some hope when all the national polls including this week s Newspoll continue to show a landslide to Labor But then a touch of the underdog might assist Kevin from Queensland
dramatic decline None of the data pairs suggested the most accurate fortnightly trend prediction of zero when you consider that Newspoll publishes it results in integer percentage points In summary none of the consecutive data pairs gave the most accurate trend result possible Only 30 per cent of the data pairs for this period gave a reasonable prediction of Labor s
Possum Comitatus Newspoll released a South Australian State poll this morning via The Oz and it s a weird set of numbers the raw numbers can be seen in that graphic or on the sidebar to the right Firstly there was a 5 point drop in the Libs primary vote and a
would you like to be Malcolm Turnbull you reach the end of the parliamentary year having been leader of the Liberal Party since the beginning of October and in that time according to newspoll the ALP primary vote has gone from 41 to 48 while the Liberal National Primary vote has gone from 38 to 35 Job well done I d say
Newspoll Labor ahead 59 41 2PP Australian Coalition primary vote sinks to 35 Labor s rises to 48 Dennis Shanahan Australian Preferred PM Turnbull now in Nelson s position Australian Brendan might as well have stayed Dennis Shanahan Australian
Newspoll issues results 5394867 jpg
In today s Australian the regular bimonthly state poll for New South Wales shows a swing back to Labor from a catastrophic low of 26 in December 2008 Labor is up from 26 to 30 while the
survey of marginal seats in New South Wales Victoria Queensland and South Australia repeating the exercise of a fortnight ago You can view a scanned copy of The Australian s table here The previous survey showed Labor on track to gain 24 seats assuming a status quo result elsewhere This one has Labor s lead in the New South Wales marginals widening from to 53 47 from
positive headlines have been dashed by a preferred prime minister rating showing Brendan Nelson back in single figures at 9 per cent compared with 72 per cent for Kevin Rudd UPDATE Graphic here
quarterly polling results in today s Australian where you can read Dennis Shanahan s take on these results The Coalition is behind in all categories except Western Australia
Today the first Newspoll of the year came out It showed the ALP had slipped from 56 to 54 and the LNP had increased from 44 to 46 Interestingly the LNP s primary vote hadn t changed a bit which made
vote is down one point to 44 per cent and the Coalition s is up one point to 38 per cent Malcolm Turnbull s approval rating is up four points to 30 per cent More to follow UPDATE Graphic here Turnbull s approval is the only leadership measure that has moved noticeably The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor s lead steady at 58 42 Also featured support for an ETS
to cook one up In these charts the orange vertical lines mark election dates The trend graphs take the raw series and smooth it using a 13 31 and 53 term Henderson moving average filter
sikamikanico attempts a judo move on the NSW Labor Bad == Federal Labor Bad attacks Ben Eltham at Polliegraph has a useful compilation of recent infringements by
IMAGE Victorian Newspoll
Posted Wednesday September 26 2007 at 3 03 am | Permalink By the way the newspoll tables http www theaustralian news com au files wa newspoll 26sep jpg
us from a sample of 1152 giving us an approximate maximum MoE of around 2 9 If we check out the history of Newspoll since 2008 we can see how the last few months has been a bit unusual The last poll of last year showed a jump to the ALP a jump which the other pollsters also picked up yet this time Newspoll has shown a dramatic drop for the New Year a result which
The Coalition is behind in all categories except Western Australia To see how much things have changed it s worth comparing the third quarter in 2007 ie the previous chart with the first quarter in 2005
Newspoll is keeping up the good work in the post federal election lull with a series of state polls today following last week s Victorian and South Australian polls with a survey showing the Coalition taking a narrow lead in Western Australia The following charts show how Newspoll has tracked the progress of the Bracks Brumby
Newspoll 5393636 jpg
There s a couple of extra charts worth looking at this Newspoll Firstly the history of Newspoll primary and two party preferred estimates going back to January 2008 If you look at what s been going on over the last 12 months the Coalition primary vote and the two party preferreds have remained static with only the ALP primary vote showing any real
collective face There s a couple of extra charts worth looking at this Newspoll Firstly the history of Newspoll primary and two party preferred estimates going back to January 2008
TABLE Newspoll cost of living figures
has Labor s two party lead at 59 41 down from 63 37 a fortnight ago Kevin Rudd s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 73 7 to 70 10 hat tip to Blair S Fairman UPDATE Graphic here
Next up let us have a little squiz at how the Newspoll satisfaction ratings have been playing out this year That kind of speaks for itself And finally we always follow the ALP and the Coalition but this time it might be worth adding the Greens to this to see how their support levels have been
Newspoll Polls
In other news sun rises in east old man drives Volvo etc etc Newspoll via The Oz today brings us a particularly dismal poll for NSW Labor even by their usual lowly standards The primaries are running 44 up 2 26 down 4 to the Coalition Do not adjust your
in the post federal election lull with a series of state polls today following last week s Victorian and South Australian polls with a survey showing the Coalition taking a narrow lead in Western Australia The following charts show how Newspoll has tracked the progress of the Bracks Brumby Gallop Carpenter and Rann governments
pollchart satisfied png
To see how much things have changed it s worth comparing the third quarter in 2007 ie the previous chart with the first quarter in 2005 The big mover over the last quarter was non capital cities which posted a significant return to Coalition although still on the downside of the 2004 election result
newspoll sat pm png
April 8 Nelson s approval rating still ok According to Newspoll it s 35 That s not too bad and there was a time when commentators advised us to look at approval ratings and nothing else not even voting intentions Opposition leaders Lord
and Mr Howard on 67per cent Dr Nelson s support dropped from 11 per cent to a record low of 9 per cent giving Mr Rudd a record lead as preferred prime minister of 61 percentage points UPDATE Now the Opposition has backed away from its previous position on the remnants of WorkChoices Coalition backs down on AWAs I can understand their reluctance given the present
nq green age png